Deteriorating SHFE/LME price ratio leads to inactivity among buyers and sellers, with Yangshan copper premiums remaining at a low level [SMM Yangshan Copper Weekly Review]

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This week (June 9-13), the weekly average price range of Yangshan copper premiums B/L transactions was US$49.6-62.4/mt, with QP July, and the average price was US$62.4/mt, down US$27.85/mt WoW. The price range of warrants was US$32.8-47.2/mt, with QP June, and the average price was US$40/mt, down US$31.5/mt WoW, QP June. The EQ copper CIF B/L price was US$6.4-18.8/mt, with an average price of US$12.6/mt, down US$27.15/mt WoW, QP July. As of June 13, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2506 contract was 8.1659, with an import profit margin of around -820 yuan/mt. As of Friday, LME copper 3M-Jun was in backwardation of US$83.51/mt; the spread between the June date and July date swap fees was approximately US$40.11/mt backwardation.

Currently, the firm offer price for high-quality ER copper warrants is US$47/mt, while the mainstream pyrometallurgy and domestic warrants are priced at US$30-40/mt. SX-EW spot cargo is hard to find. High-quality copper B/L spot cargo is hard to find, while the mainstream pyrometallurgy and domestic warrants are priced at around US$30-55/mt, and SX-EW spot cargo is hard to find. The CIF B/L price for EQ copper ranges from US$4/mt to US$18/mt, with an average price of US$11/mt.

Since last Friday, the SHFE/LME price ratio has declined significantly, resulting in a loss of approximately 1,500 yuan/mt for spot imports against the SHFE copper 2506 contract. The sharp decrease in active imports also indicates the emergence of an export profit window. According to SMM, the planned export volume (sum of exports to bonded areas and to LME) from domestic smelters in this round is approximately 50,000 mt. Traders are also taking the opportunity to actively purchase at low prices from domestic smelters, leading to a significant decline in offshore US dollar copper premiums, particularly for domestic warrants in bonded areas and B/L for domestic brands arriving at the port. As of this week, the spot market has been sluggish. The high backwardation structure and low premium environment for LME copper have resulted in low willingness to trade among both buyers and sellers, with only a few traders making small transactions to fill long-term contract gaps. Looking ahead to next week, SMM maintains its unchanged market outlook. Both Yangshan copper warrant and B/L premiums are expected to remain difficult to recover. The LME backwardation structure is anticipated to continue expanding upwards, with the SHFE/LME price ratio unlikely to recover. Market activity is expected to remain low, and Yangshan copper premiums are projected to continue operating at low levels.

According to the SMM survey, as of Thursday (June 12), copper inventories in domestic bonded areas increased by 1,700 mt from the previous period (June 5) to 59,700 mt. Among them, bonded copper inventories in Shanghai increased by 0.17 mt to 53,700 mt, while bonded copper inventories in Guangdong remained unchanged from the previous period. The main reason for the increase in bonded area inventories this week was the slow customs clearance of imported B/Ls arriving at the port. Since last Friday, import losses have widened significantly, Yangshan copper premiums have declined sharply, and traders' willingness to import has decreased. Some of the B/Ls for arriving shipments have been converted into bonded warehouse inventory. Meanwhile, domestic smelters plan to increase their exports, leading to an increase in bonded area inventory. Looking ahead, it is expected that the export of bonded cargo from domestic smelters will arrive gradually, and bonded warehouse inventory is expected to continue to increase.

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